Wednesday March 10 , 2010
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Euro against major currencies...

EUR/USD 0/+ Buy dips to 1.3623 for rebound to 1.3700. Stop below 1.3576. Seeing some short dated buying interest in Asia, particularly the 1m which traded up to 1.400 this morning with spot breaching the 1.3650 level.

EUR/JPY 0/+  Still buy dips to 89.60 for a push back to 90.30, poss 90.70. Stop below 89.25.  2010-02-16 20:53:52

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US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey...

Economy

There were 2.7 million job openings on the last business day of January 2010. The job openings rate rose over the month to 2.1 percent, the highest the rate has been since February 2009. The hires rate (3.1 percent) and the separations rate (3.2 percent) were unchanged in January. The annual totals and rates for 2009 are now available.
 

Emerging-Market Commodities & Stock Rise on Dubai, Greece Plans...

Economy

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the Euro region is ready to rescue Greece should the government struggle to fund Europe’s biggest budget deficit, while former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said the challenges posed by Greece’s debt aren’t “insuperable.” Dubai World, the state-owned holding company that’s trying to renegotiate about US $26 billion of debt, will present a plan to creditors this month, said three bankers familiar with the negotiations

Read more: Emerging-Market Commodities & Stock Rise on Dubai, Greece Plans...

 

USA Non-Farm Payrolls Seen Positive...

Forex

The perceived better data saw US yields pushing higher with the 10-year yield rising 8bp to 3.68% and as a result USDJPY was able to build on the BOJ GE-linked rally to mount the 90 handle with JPY crosses dragged along with it.

Major Economy and Forex Market Headlines - Previous Session 

 

  • USA Feb. Change in Non-farm Payrolls out at -36k vs. -68k expected and revised -26k prior
  • USA Feb. Unemployment Rate out at 9.7% vs. 9.8% expected and unchanged from prior
  • USA Feb. Avg. Hourly Earnings out at +0.1% m/m vs. +0.2% expected and +0.2% prior
  • USA Jan. Consumer Credit out at +$5 bln vs. -$4.5 bln expected and revised -$4.6 bln prior
  • NZ Q4 Manufacturing Activity out at +0.7% unchanged from revised prior (-5.1% previously)
  • Japan Jan. Current Account Balance out at ¥899.8b vs. ¥783.9b expected and ¥900.8b prior
  • Japan Feb. Bank Lending out at -1.5% y/y vs. -1.7% expected and -1.5% prior
  • Japan Feb. Bankruptcies out at -17.3% y/y vs. -21.8% prior
  • Japan Feb. Economy Watchers Survey: Current out at 42.1 vs. 40.1 expected and 38.8 prior
  • Japan Feb. Economy Watchers Survey: Outlook out at 44.8 vs. 41.9 prior
 

The USA Dollar fell sharply against the Euro...

Forex

The US dollar fell sharply against the Euro and commodity currencies following the latest jobs report. The further signs of healing in the US economy were recognised as being positive for global growth. The Aussie dollar rose from lows near US90.00c to US90.95c, ending US trade near US90.75c. But the Japanese yen eased from 89.18 yen per US dollar to JPY90.55, ending US trade near JPY90.30. The Euro rose from lows near US$1.3540 to US$1.3635, ending US trade near US$1.3623. 
   

International Demand for USA Financial Assets Slowed...

Economy

China cut its holdings of U.S. government debt in December to the lowest level since February 2009 and Japan was a net buyer for the six month in the past seven. As the financial crisis eased, some central banks that poured money into Treasuries have been investing reserves elsewhere, economists said.

Net buying of long-term equities, notes and bonds totaled $63.3 billion for the month, compared with net purchases of $126.4 billion in November, the Treasury said in Washington. Including short-term securities such as bills and stock swaps, foreigners purchased a net $60.9 billion in December, compared with net buying of $30.7 billion the previous month. 

 

   

Europe Ministers Ready to Force Deeper Cuts on Greece...

Economy

The ministers from the 16 nations that use the Euro told Greek authorities yesterday to ready more deficit measures for next month, in case the government fails to show sufficient progress reining in the region’s largest budget deficit. After leaders promised to back Greece last week, EU governments are looking for guarantees that Greece can slash spending before they spell out what help they may offer.

“We certainly won’t let them off the hook,” Austrian Finance Minister Josef Proell said today before a meeting of European Union finance ministers in Brussels. His Swedish counterpart, Anders Borg, called for Greece to take more “concrete steps to regain credibility in the markets.” 

Read more: Europe Ministers Ready to Force Deeper Cuts on Greece...

   

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Major Currencies Daily Heat Table


Daily Currencies Heat Table              Update: Daily GMT +5:00

EUR

USD

JPY

GBP

AUD

CHF

CAD

NZD

NOK

PKR

SEK

PLN

+ -

-

+ + - -    

+

+

 

Daily Gold, Oil and Silver Futures...

Commodities

Daily Stance

Comments

Gold 0/

Likely ranging 1,070-1,095 but downside looks vulnerable. Prefer to play from short side.

Silver 0/

Break above 17.05 seen limited to 17.10. Sell there for test of 16.85, stop above 17.25.

Oil 0/+

Buy at the break of $77.10 and target $79.00. Stop below $76.20.

Forex Overview

Currencies Overview

The Euro-zone finance ministers held a meeting yesterday about Greece (and they will be joined today by ministers from the rest of the EU). A vague statement like the one last week could be received negatively by the markets.

2010-02-16 - 06:56:19

EUR/USD

Buy dips to 1.3620 for rebound to 1.3700. Stop below 1.3569.


STERLING/DOLLAR

(daily stance 0/+)

Look to buy dips to 1.5665-70 area for rebound back to 1.5745. Stop below 1.5620.


DOLLAR/YEN

Volumes are largely unchanged in Asia. With spot above 9300 we are seeing new wave of interest in buying the risk reversals (Buy USD puts)  as ATM volumes remain soft.

USDJPY (daily stance 0)

Still buy dips to 89.60 for a push back to 90.30, poss 90.70. Stop below 89.25.

AUD/ DOLLAR

Volumes continue lower in Asia as spot trades up towards 8956. Risk reversals have continued
to hold steady and 1Y is higher at 15.4 up from 15.3 yesterday.

Rally can extend to 0.8955 but consolidation there before higher. 0.8900-60 range for now. 

 


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Central Banks Interest Rates

US       0.25%
UK 0.5%
EMU / EURO 1%
Japan 0.1%
Switzerland 0.25%
Canada 0.25%
Australia 3%
New Zealand 2.5%
Sweden 0.25%

G-20 Economy & Updates!

Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 5-1/4 percent in the second quarter. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 8-1/4 percent, and non-revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 3-1/2 percent. In June, consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 5 percent.

Jawwad Ahmad

Jawwad Ahmad is the Founder of MyForexTime.com. After trading the Stock and Forex markets for 6 year, He founded the MyForexTime.com in 2005. Jawwad Ahmad has been an active Forex trader for the last 10 years, specializing in the International Foreign Exchange Market. He also MBA and CS graduate in the University of AJK, in Pakistan, as a specializing in Information Technology, and financial self-taught. He has since been managing trading accounts privately, manages clients portfolio for the leading Retail FX brokers, also training new traders around the world.

MyForexTime Twitter Updates

10.03.10
Gold Sell at the break of $1118 and target $1106. Stop above $1124...
10.03.10
There were 2.7 million job openings on the last business day of January 2010...: http://digg.com/d31L651?t
08.03.10
Emerging-Market Commodities & Stock Rise on Dubai, Greece...: http://digg.com/d31KxJq?t
10.02.10
Trade Deficit in U.S. Unexpectedly Increased in December...: http://digg.com/d31IMzN?t
11.01.10
www.MyForexTime.com - Chinese buyers have booked cargoes of Columbian thermal coal despite the prohibitive freight costs.
11.01.10
www.MyForexTime.com - The spot gold price rose Friday as the US dollar weakened, finishing at USD 1,138.25/oz...
11.01.10
Crude oil prices rose 0.1% to USD 82.75/bbl last week, driven by a weaker US dollar and continuing cold weather in the northern hemisphere.
11.01.10
China's exports surged in December 2009...: http://digg.com/d31FE3E?t
08.01.10
USA Nonfarm payroll employment edged down...: http://digg.com/d31F1uI?t
03.01.10
Ben Bernanke Says Low Rates Didn't Cause House Bubble...: http://digg.com/d31EVq4?t
31.12.09
Daily Exchange rates, Pakistani Rupees per US Dollar...: http://digg.com/d31EIGW?t
31.12.09
According to PPP, by how much are major currencies...: http://digg.com/d31EIBy?t
29.12.09
China continues weak Yuan...: http://digg.com/d31E5tM?t
28.12.09
www.MyForexTime.com - China's Consumer prices climbed 0.6 percent in November from a year earlier, snapping a nine-month run of deflation...
28.12.09
www.MyForexTime.com - Japanese manufacturers increased output at the fastest pace in six months in November 2009...
28.12.09
www.MyForexTime.com - Toyota was the biggest contributor to gains by the Topix, rising 0.8 percent to 3,880 yen...
28.12.09
www.MyForexTime.com - Japanese Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose to its highest level in four months...
28.12.09
Wen Jiabao said the government will cool property prices, resist pressure for Yuan to appreciate & keep inflation at “reasonable” levels.
28.12.09
Japanese manufacturers increased output at the fastest pace in six months in November,..: http://digg.com/d31DybN?t
25.12.09
Bank of England Minutes show the bank very much in a wait-and-see stance, as the bank want to see how ..: http://digg.com/d31DoPs?t

Pakistan Economic Indicators

  Annual 2009/10  
  Foreign Debt $50.1bn  
  Per Cap Income $1046  
  GDP Growth 2.0%  
  Average CPI 20.77%  
  Monthly July
 
  Trade Balance $-1.15 bln  
  Exports $1.49 bln
  Imports $2.64 bln  
 

Weekly August 18, 2009

 
  Reserves $11.846 bln
 

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Credit Default Swaps...

One-month in credit default swaps bet against countries

Euro Without Support

EURO Without Supportimage

The EUR certainly received no support from a better than expected ZEW survey yesterday (-53.5 vs. -63 expected) as the focus on continued risk aversion spelled trouble for the single currency and EURUSD and EURJPY posted new two-week lows late yesterday and overnight Read More

Japan Currency and Economy

Economy At Risk?

Chart USD / JPY
Japan's economy is at risk of deteriorating further as the global financial turmoil slows growth worldwide, BoJ board member Seiji Nakamura said. "Japan could be on the verge of long-term economic adjustments and the downside risks to the economy are increasing further,'' Read More

Pakistan Currency and Economy

Economic Recovery?

Chart USD / JPY
Pakistan's economy is finally able to recover as the global financial turmoil slows growth worldwide, Inflation rate is still out of control & increase in current accounts deficit. Pakistan’s economy needs effective policies and implementation of
reforms in FY09 to regain macroeconomic stability in the midst of a challenging year... Read More

EuroZone

Euro zone in recession as economy shrinks in Q3

The Euro zone is in its first ever technical recession after the economy contracted for the second time in a row quarter-on-quarter in the July-September period, an official estimate showed on Friday.

Gold Future and Spot

Gold rates, gold trading

Gold prices slipped a little lower last night influenced by technical selling...  2010-03-10  Read More

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